UK Health Chiefs advise millions will be hospitalised over next 12 months due to COVID-19

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A leaded report from the medical chiefs from Public Health England advises that it expects nearly 8 million UK residents to be hospitalised over the next 12 months putting excess pressure on the NHS.

The table below from published by the UK Office for National Statistics advises the age distribution of the UK population. From this you can see that this was c. 18 million in 2016. If the estimate of 8 million is correct this would suggest 44% of the UK population aged over 65 would be impacted by the virus and assuming a 3.6% death rate (as compared to China) then this would equate to 288,000 projected deaths over the next year.

Table 1: Age distribution of the UK population, 1976 to 2046 (projected)

  0 to 15 years (%)16 to 64 years (%)Aged 65 and over (%)UK population
197624.561.214.256,216,121
198620.564.115.456,683,835
199620.763.515.958,164,374
200619.264.915.960,827,067
201618.963.118.065,648,054
202618.860.720.569,843,515
203618.058.223.973,360,907
204617.757.724.776,342,235
Source: Office for National Statistics

The UK Government is coming under pressure from many areas to explain why the UK is not in lockdown as other European countries area. It might well be the year of the real Brexit (tbc) but this is no excuse for the UK Government to be different.

In Ireland, the north is open however a short distance over the border into the Republic and bars, restaurants and schools are all closed. How confusing?

In the UK, the Football and Rugby Union Federations announced cancellation of all scheduled matches for an indefinite period to combat the virus. F1 has followed suit however the UK remains to give different public health information to the public.

What next ? Will the UK Government wake up and align with other European countries? Even President Trump has blocked international flights to the US from the UK & Ireland from Tuesday 17th March (St Patrick’s Day) in addition to the earlier ban to flights from Europe to the US.

The mind ponders where we will end up…. but you can be sure the world as we know it has just changed forever.

Be safe.

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